This week’s special contest for Ohio’s 12th US House District combined with 3 new NBC/Marist polls regarding upcoming Senate and gubernatorial races in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, shows the 2018 election could already be shaping up to be trouble for the GOP.
Politics
Results in Ohio’s 2018 election between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson from Tuesday are still too close to call. With several thousand absentee and provisional ballots left to count, the contest could still go either way. This is devastating news for the GOP when considering that Ohio’s 12th district is overwhelmingly conservative and Republican.
According to NBC News: “There are 68 and 79 GOP-held congressional districts that are more competitive than where O’Connor and Balderson are running — and Democrats need just 23 to take the House from the GOP.”
Considering that math, most seats in the November 2018 election would turn Democratic blue if they swung as much as Ohio did on Tuesday.
“Nothing that happened on Tuesday night suggests that the environment is improving for Republicans. They barely held a traditionally GOP seat in Ohio,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“I have never been more confident that we will take back the House,” added Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, who also serves as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
His ecstatic outlook is not without merit.
In the current Michigan 2018 election poll, Democratic incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow leads potential GOP opponents by double digits. Additionally, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is holding a steady advantage against Republican Bill Schuette in the race for governor.
In the current Minnesota 2018 election poll, Democrat Tina Smith is leading Republican Karin Housley for US Senate. Additionally, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is trailing in his reelection bid.
In the current Wisconsin 2018 election poll, Democrat Tammy Baldwin is leading potential Senate challengers, while current GOP Gov. Scott Walker already appears to be in jeopardy.
I’m sure Republicans will celebrate tonight, but a 1-point victory in that district is nothing to commend. #OH12
The GOP have to do something really significant in September if they want to keep the House in November. https://t.co/lK93kxxE2c
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 8, 2018
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The poor showing in polls for Republicans appears to be directly connected to historically horrific approval ratings for Donald Trump, which has regularly hovered near or below 40%.
“Imagine what will happen if these trends continue in November in districts where Republicans already were facing a challenge,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “As of right now, our polling suggests that’s exactly what the landscape will look like.”
Even Republicans are recognizing the writing on the wall.
“I’ve worked in Ohio presidential and Senate races for Republicans and the idea of (Ohio’s 12th) being a close race is sort of like hearing gravity is a regional phenomena,” former top Mitt Romney strategist Stuart Stevens said on Twitter. “It’s not how the world is supposed to work.”
Very good detailed summary DJ. And let me say…rarely do I take anything that Frank Luntz says seriously. This is one of those rare occasions. Re: Ohio 12-” I’m sure Republicans will celebrate tonight, but a 1-point victory in that district is nothing to commend.” And apparently, as they continue to count ballots in Ohio 12, the race continues to tighten as O’Connor’s tally grows. If the difference narrows to within 0.5% ..that will trigger an automatic recount. The Repubs will probably end of with the win but it’ll be so razor thin people will see it as a tie. As noted in your post Repubs like Frank Luntz are already sounding the alarm. It’s extremely rare that I take anything Luntz says seriously but on this..he’s right: “I’m sure Republicans will celebrate tonight, but a 1-point victory in that district is nothing to commend. The GOP have to do… Read more »