ELECTION PREVIEW

Today is primary day in Alabama and Mississippi, as well as Hawaii and American Samoa.  But even more so than on Super Tuesday, today could be make or break day for the remaining Republican candidates.

Here’s a list of expectations for each of the remaining men:

MITT ROMNEY –
Romney has consistently been seen as the aristocratic New England millionaire, who’s out of touch with the regular guy/gal and incapable of having any appeal in the deep south.  The bible belt runs thick through Alabama and Mississippi, where it’s been said evangelical Christians might not take kindly to the Mormon from the North.  But that hasn’t stopped Romney from trying to speak in a southern drawl this week and proclaim a new affinity for grits, hoping that could swing a vote or two his way.  If Romney could win at least one southern state today, he would instantly own bragging rights that he is a national candidate with wide appeal, who deserves the nomination.  But one or more losses today from Romney means we’re headed to a convention fight.

RICK SANTORUM –
Santorum had Romney on the ropes when he was discussing the economy and issues that matter most to the broader electorate.  But once Santorum hitched his wagon to social issues and allowed religion to dictate his political voice, Santorum’s campaign began to falter.  His focus on same-sex marriage, social programs and proclaiming JFK’s speech on the separation of church and state made him want to throw up might have played to a small portion of his Republican base, but it alienated uninterested voters in states like Michigan, which came just after his words.  Interestingly, that type rhetoric could benefit him today in the south.  Santorum needs a win today to propel his momentum from the Kansas caucuses over the weekend.  Winning at least one state today gives him a strong argument that he is a viable alternative to Mitt Romney.  Losing both southern states today would be a major setback and could put his candidacy in jeopardy.

NEWT GINGRICH –
More than any other candidate, today is make or break day for Newt.  His win in his home state of Georgia seems like eons ago and his candidacy is flailing.  Gingrich bet on a southern strategy to keep his campaign alive.  But it would be a fatal blow to his future if the south fails him today.  Fearing Gingrich and Santorum are splitting the conservative vote and are drawing out the election process unnecessarily, many conservatives are now openly telling Gingrich it’s time to stand aside for the sake of the party.  But Gingrich is hoping to stay alive in the unlikely event Santorum slips up — so he could then step in as the conservative alternative to Romney.  Any loss today for the former Speaker of the House would likely be the end of the road for Newt’s presidential dreams.

RON PAUL –
Ron Paul is like the crotchety old uncle who still thinks it’s 1940, so the family just humors him.  Paul’s candidacy is more of a novelty that his own party doesn’t take seriously.  In short, he is no real threat to anyone.  With that said, Paul needs a win today in at least Hawaii for him to remain in the discussion. But even if he loses everything today, he’s not going anywhere and Republicans will continue to think of him like a piece of lint on a black suede jacket — no big deal!