The South was once the Republican’s playground. The region, which includes the bible belt, racially segregated sections and highly conservative districts, was once a sure bet to vote solidly for the Grand Ol’ Party. But as the song says: “Oh, the times…they are a changing.”
In 2008, Barack Obama carried Florida, Virginia and North Carolina — states that hadn’t gone for a Democrat in decades — and some political analysts are saying that may not have been a fluke.
New residents, changing birth rates, and migration patterns are making parts of the south less white, less conservative and less religiously rigid. Combine that with an increased urban influence in many areas, where African-American families are moving back to the South after generations in Detroit, Chicago, and other northern cities, and you can clearly see a formula for change.
“The transformation of the South seems to never end,” said Mo Elleithee, a Democratic campaign consultant with heavy experience in Virginia and federal elections. “Now it’s beginning to emerge, at least parts of it, as solidly purple.”
The theory is that younger voters, who used to blindly follow their parents’ voting record, are now less likely to join with Republicans on hot button issues like abortion and same-sex unions. These voters have a much more liberal view on such subjects than generations before them, including the role of the federal government in American society. Hispanics are also fleeing from the Republican party, as the GOP has led in the creation of laws that allow police to “racially profile” anyone on the street and require them to prove their citizenship.
Still, with a diminishing hold on the south by Republicans, the GOP is actually seeing their influence increase in western mountain states, including Colorado and Nevada. But even those states are evenly distributed with both Democrats and Republicans and is still up for grabs.
If you think any of this is being lost in Republican circles, guess again. Some see their influence dwindling and are quietly beginning to express concern.
Former Republican party chairman and two-term Mississippi governor Haley Barbour has publicly acknowledged GOP concerns that Hispanics will vote for President Obama in proportions Mitt Romney will be unable to overcome. He believes that “if the election for them is only about immigration,” then Republicans are doomed.
And on a related note…..Politico: "Jeb Bush: GOP needs to change 'tone' to reach out"Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a long-time proponent of increased Republican outreach to Hispanic voters, says demographic changes mean the GOP should shift the "tone" of its message over the long-term."I'm concerned over the long haul, for sure," Bush said in an interview aired Sunday on NBC's "Meet The Press." "Our demographics are changing. And we have to change not necessarily our core beliefs, but the tone of our message and our message and the intensity of it, for sure. … This is going to be a close election. Long-term, if conservatives principles our going to be successful and implemented, there has to be a concerted effort to reach out to a broader audience than we do today."A <span>Wall Street Journal/NBC poll</span> last week found President Barack Obama beating presumptive GOP nominee among Hispanic voters, 63… Read more »