Comments on: ROMNEY WINS MAKE LITTLE IMPACT https://www.okwassup.com/romney-wins-sma/ News, Entertainment, Lifestyle and more! Wed, 27 May 2015 07:55:59 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 By: Truthiz https://www.okwassup.com/romney-wins-sma/#comment-1895 Tue, 14 Feb 2012 17:26:22 +0000 http://okwassup.com/2012/02/13/romney-wins-sma/#comment-1895 Ooops, I stand corrected =-O !Yesterday I wrote: "PPP has been on the money lately …..".Welp, it seems that isn't quite true. Nate Silver: "Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base""So far, in fact, Public Policy Polling (like most other polling firms) has underestimated Mr. Santorum’s performance. In the eight states that the firm polled immediately prior to the voting, Mr. Santorum had an average of 22 percent in the surveys — but he got an average of 27 percent of the vote." [….]In the same article Nate looks at Mitt's inability to generate higher voter turnout:[…] Perhaps the most interesting aspect of a new American Research Group poll of Michigan, which gives Rick Santorum a six-point lead over Mitt Romney, a native son, is the stark divide it shows in the level of voter commitment to the candidates.Among the Republicans that the polling firm classified as definite voters, Mr. Santorum’s lead was larger, 11 points over Mr. Romney. However, Mr. Romney led Mr. Santorum 33 to 22 among voters the pollsters classified as more marginal.Ordinarily, a candidate should benefit from having the support of more definite voters — and most polling firms give them the bulk of the weight in their turnout models, which is why Mr. Santorum leads the poll over all.The universe of indefinite voters is broader. But those votes don’t count for anything unless the candidate can get the voters to the polls.That’s something Mr. Romney has had trouble doing so far. In states and counties that would appear to be strong for him, turnout is generally running below its 2008 pace. […]Read: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/

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By: Truthiz https://www.okwassup.com/romney-wins-sma/#comment-1887 Mon, 13 Feb 2012 17:40:43 +0000 http://okwassup.com/2012/02/13/romney-wins-sma/#comment-1887 And again, adding possible insult to injury:PPP: "Santorum moves ahead in Michigan"Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich.  Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum.<a rel="nofollow">Republican voters aren't just declining to vote for Gingrich at this point- they don't even like him anymore. Just 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 47% with a negative one.Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not. […]Read: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/s…My usual disclosure: Nate Silver is the only guy that I trust to any degree when it comes polling analysis. That said. PPP has been on the money lately and IF their current polling trends hold up, Feb. 28th (Michigan's primary) could be a somewhat difficult night for Romney.   

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By: Truthiz https://www.okwassup.com/romney-wins-sma/#comment-1883 Mon, 13 Feb 2012 13:24:13 +0000 http://okwassup.com/2012/02/13/romney-wins-sma/#comment-1883 "Santorum downplayed Romney's small win in Maine as well."And well it should be played down. A little over 5,000 people participated in the GOP caucuses in Maine this year (ONLY about 100 more voters than in 2008). And of that amount, Romney reportedly won by at least 600 FEWER votes than he recieved in 2008. By now everybody knows that Straw polls are a complete joke. Just ask that stellar EX-candidate, and winner of this year's Iowa GOP Straw Poll, Michelle Bachmann.Simply put: Romney remains about as weak a front-runner as there's ever been, in quite some years, and no amount of money or spin changes that fact.

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