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GOP Is Old And Dying…Literally

If you identify as a member of the Republican Party, you’re a dying breed — literally.

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As Republicans prepare for the 2016 presidential election, its own nickname is already working against it:  the Grand OLD Party.

Let’s face it, the typical Republican voter is old — and getting older.  With younger voters neglecting to flock to the GOP as their parents and grandparents once did, the old guard is steadily dying off and the membership rolls are simply not being replenished.

Although much has been said of a new generation of voters becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, much less has been said of the hundreds of thousands of GOP voters who are simply passing away. This is not a good sign for the future of the conservative party.

According to a recent Politico article, the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, so more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. Also, the GOP’s conservative slant toward evangelicals, its stance against gay marriage, as well as its failure to engage ethnic voters has turned the younger, first-time voter away. Unless the GOP can connect with new voters or discover a magical fountain of youth, a slow demographic decline could eventually render the party obsolete.

Here are the numbers:  Of the 61 million Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, roughly 2.75 million of them will be dead by the 2016 election. Also, 2.3 million of the 66 million who voted for President Obama will pass away as well. That leaves a gap of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats.

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According to William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in demographic studies, replacing older and whiter Republican voters who die with younger and multiethnic ones is essential for the GOP to remain competitive going forward.  So far, they are not succeeding in doing so.

So what happens if Republicans aren’t able to win over a larger share of the youth vote? In 2016, roughly 13 million new young people will become eligible to vote. Statistics already predict Democrats will pick up a 2 million vote advantage among first-time voters. Combined with voter death data, Republicans will be at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.

“The [GOP] does rely too much on older and white voters, and especially in rural areas, deaths from this group can be significant,” Frey said. “But millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference.”

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Today’s article: The GOP is old and dying,
creating a boon for Democrats