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GOP Is Old And Dying…Literally
If you identify as a member of the Republican Party, you’re a dying breed — literally.
Unbiased Political News
As Republicans prepare for the 2016 presidential election, its own nickname is already working against it: the Grand OLD Party.
Let’s face it, the typical Republican voter is old — and getting older. With younger voters neglecting to flock to the GOP as their parents and grandparents once did, the old guard is steadily dying off and the membership rolls are simply not being replenished.
Although much has been said of a new generation of voters becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, much less has been said of the hundreds of thousands of GOP voters who are simply passing away. This is not a good sign for the future of the conservative party.
According to a recent Politico article, the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, so more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. Also, the GOP’s conservative slant toward evangelicals, its stance against gay marriage, as well as its failure to engage ethnic voters has turned the younger, first-time voter away. Unless the GOP can connect with new voters or discover a magical fountain of youth, a slow demographic decline could eventually render the party obsolete.
Here are the numbers: Of the 61 million Americans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, roughly 2.75 million of them will be dead by the 2016 election. Also, 2.3 million of the 66 million who voted for President Obama will pass away as well. That leaves a gap of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats.
Unbiased Political News
According to William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in demographic studies, replacing older and whiter Republican voters who die with younger and multiethnic ones is essential for the GOP to remain competitive going forward. So far, they are not succeeding in doing so.
So what happens if Republicans aren’t able to win over a larger share of the youth vote? In 2016, roughly 13 million new young people will become eligible to vote. Statistics already predict Democrats will pick up a 2 million vote advantage among first-time voters. Combined with voter death data, Republicans will be at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.
“The [GOP] does rely too much on older and white voters, and especially in rural areas, deaths from this group can be significant,” Frey said. “But millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference.”
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Today’s article: The GOP is old and dying,
creating a boon for Democrats
Here's how I see it……..
Neither LBJ (a Southern born and bred White Supremacist himself) ..nor the leaders of either party could have possibly foreseen how the Repubs would eventually completely SCREW themselves (no pun intended) in the coming years, following LBJ signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 into law.
With the DEFECTION of millions of middle-aged and OLD (mostly) Southern White Supremacist voters, including Southern White evangelical Christians to the Republican party (throw in gun-nuts and NeoCons to boot), the Dems would eventually usher in a New day in American history.
Yes, it would take nearly 50 years…and this country having to endure TONS of really BAD stuff from the Repubs..but in the end, it appears the Dems are poised to really capitalize on what the Repubs took for granted – a broad spectrum of MILLIONS of Americans from very diverse backgounds (age, racial, ethnic, cultural, socio-economic and sexual orientation), especially millions of young voters.
Now…let me be clear….
I am in NO WAY saying that there aren't more than few Dems who are just as OLD, bitter, hateful and extreme in their beliefs and actions towards the "Others." Of course the Dems have them too.
BUT as a political party, the Dems didn't deliberaely tailor a message to appeal to..and stoke the flames…of those kinds of people in order to get votes and gain power. The Dems don't have extremists. and haters running that party. And the Dems sure as heck didn't mix ANY religious doctrine with their politics and in particular hold themselves up as some "holier-than-thou" phoney-baloney party of "Family Values." <rolling my eyes>
The Dems tend to go outta their way to speak the language they hope really appeals to the "common man" and to those voters who are NOT welcomed in the Republican party, whcih totals MILLIONS of Americans.
And fankly, until the first election of President Obama the Dems had pretty much Failed to recognize their golden opportunity to really GROW the party (SEE the successes of the Obama Coalition that the Clintons desperately want AND NEED to win the Presidency) …especially inviting young people to take an active role in developing and running campaigns and helping to forge the direction of the Democrat party and Our country at large.
To be sure- the leaders within the Democrat party still have a lot of learning to do.
While the Repubs can do nothing but look on (and in some cases) with Envy at the Dem's progress, secretly wishing their Grand OLD (and DYING) Party had taken a much different path long ago.
On a related note………….
If reports are true(?) ..the numbers of (mostly) young White Southern Baptist evangelicals are in significant declined also, as those young people of faith become young adults and move on to other NON-right-wing extremists Christian faiths.
It's one thing when the New York Times covers this issue in an article published in 2012.
It's another thing completely when the same observation is reported on in The American Conservative 6 days ago.
SEE: The Decline of the Southern Baptists
I never thought of it this way but now I see how it can be true. In the big picture the Repubs message is not connecting with younger generation. I just read a article today about how Repubs are going to have to stop talking about one man one woman marriage since the country is changing on gay marriage. They are a small segment in the big picture and they are dying off. Now the Dems better start taking advantage of that now.
INTERESTING TIDBIT:
A recent Pew study has revealed that a majority of both men and women believe homosexuality should be accepted, which is a substantial increase from only 2 years ago. The only group that had a decrease in the percentage of respondents who believed society should accept homosexuality was conservative Republicans.
Hmmm…
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