Donald Trump’s recent display of tear gas and military might against peaceful American protestors has officials wondering what he might do should he lose the 2020 presidential election. That’s why a Trump doomsday scenario is already being discussed.
Politics
If his order to gas his own citizens just for the sake of a personal photo-op did nothing else, it proved that Donald Trump is only interested in doing what’s best for Donald Trump. He refused to hang the official portrait of former President Barack Obama inside The White House and has already begun planting the seeds that mail-in voting is rife with fraud and will lead to a skewed election. So, what stunt will ‘The Donald’ pull next?
For the man who has spent the last 4 years conditioning his followers to believe that any and all news or information critical of him is fake news, a November loss for Trump would be the equivalent of a really bad circus coming to town. His gun-toting white supremacist flock of followers would almost assuredly take to the streets to violently protest the “rigged” results and could even surround The White House on January 20, 2021, to prevent the peaceful transfer of power to the new president — setting the stage for a constitutional crisis.
That’s why a Trump doomsday scenario and transitional strategies are already under careful consideration. Let’s take a look at them:
WHAT IF TRUMP LOSES BY A SMALL MARGIN?
If Donald Trump were to lose Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Arizona by less than one percentage point, he would immediately contest the results of those states and use mail-in ballots as his argument for illegitimacy. As Arizona has previously proven, it often takes days or weeks to count mail-in ballots and Trump would likely attempt to use this notoriously slow process and claims of irregularities to his advantage.
If this happens, Trump would take a page from the playbook of former GOP Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin by insinuating voter fraud, refusing to concede, and claiming “a number of irregularities” cost him the election. He would sue Democratic-leaning counties for alleged voting violations and ask judges to toss out their results.
“I can imagine the litigation in Pennsylvania taking the form of saying voting booths in Philadelphia were held open an excessively long time, an unlawfully long time, or the vote counters in some Democratic-leaning county unlawfully refused to count late-filed absentee ballots,” said Mark Tushnet, a constitutional law professor at Harvard University. Trump’s road to victory would “mean throwing out the ballots and saying that when those are thrown out, Trump gets the state’s electoral votes” which would allow him to remain president.
Democrats are already preparing for this possible Trump doomsday scenario with a huge get out the vote initiative to avoid a close election in the swing states. They are planning a grass-roots local effort for Joe Biden to stage solid victories throughout the midwestern rust belt to neutralize any argument of a close election. Additionally, Democrats are attempting to halt Sen. Lindsey Graham’s call for “older judges” to retire so that Donald Trump can appoint replacements in time for November. By preventing Trump from inserting his flunkies into the judicial system, Democrats hope to avoid nepotism and rulings that go against them solely to assist Trump.
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WHAT IF LEGAL CONTESTS EXTEND INTO 2021?
Due to ongoing threats of COVID-19, many Americans are already preparing to vote by mail. If the counting of mail-in ballots takes weeks to complete and Donald Trump launches a series of long and drawn out lawsuits to contest the results, it’s very possible January 20, 2021, could come without an accepted consensus of who should be inaugurated as the legitimate President of the United States.
“I’m not trying to be an alarmist here, but it’s possible to imagine, come January 20th, that we don’t have a president.” – Lawrence Douglas, professor of law, Amherst College
Under this scenario, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 states that the speaker of the House would become acting president. This means that Nancy Pelosi would resign as House Speaker and become the temporary POTUS until the election results were legally certified.
However, what if Donald Trump insists that he has been reelected and is the rightful president? We could see Pelosi and Trump each claiming to be the commander in chief and Trump staging his own inauguration ceremony with Clarence Thomas issuing the oath of office.
That is why Democrats are relying on keeping legitimate judges in place across the country and preventing Trump from replacing them with his own enablers.
WHAT IF TRUMP REFUSES TO LEAVE THE WHITE HOUSE?
According to the 20th Amendment of the Constitution, the terms of the president and vice president “shall end at noon on the 20th day of January … and the terms of their successors shall then begin.”
So, if instead of meeting President-elect Joe Biden and his wife in the White House driveway on the morning of January 20, 2021, and instead of attending the inauguration on Capitol Hill, Trump proclaims that the election was a fraud and that he refuses to cede power, a series of events would quickly kick in to circumvent this Trump doomsday scenario.
At the stroke of noon, the nuclear codes (which currently allow Trump to order and authenticate a nuclear attack) would expire. The military officer who has been following him around everywhere with the nuclear “football” would simply leave. If Trump were to somehow prevent the officer from leaving, another officer with a backup football would then join President Biden at the inauguration ceremony with a new set of nuclear codes.
“They’re a ‘let’s burn the house down on the way out’ kind of crowd.” – John Podesta, former Clinton Chief of Staff
The entire US military establishment would then pivot away from Trump and salute President Biden as the authentic Commander-In-Chief. If Donald Trump were to attempt to order the military to do anything, they would be mandated by the constitution to refuse his order. If any officers were to obey him, they would be tried and convicted on charges of mutiny and sedition — a punishment they are all well aware of in advance.
Meanwhile, the Secret Service would abandon Trump (as they do every president whose term is up) and would instead assign only a small detail to protect him and his family.
Foreign leaders would be instructed to cut off relations with the US ambassadors in their capitals and await instructions from President Biden or his acting secretary of state.
The new acting attorney general would draw up arrest warrants for Donald Trump and anyone who remained at his side on the minimum grounds of criminal trespassing. Additionally, any remaining Trump aides or Cabinet officers taking his orders would face criminal charges and would be escorted off the White House grounds in handcuffs.
If white supremacists and armed militiamen were to rally around the White House and refuse to prevent US Marshals from removing Trump from the premises, the Secret Service and/or the National Guard would be ordered by the new president to enforce the law. If that didn’t work, a few M1 tanks might be dispatched to roll down Pennsylvania Avenue/Black Lives Matter Plaza and use the power of the United States military to honor the constitution and restore order.
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“Given my experience working for Mr. Trump, I fear that if he loses the election in 2020 that there will never be a peaceful transition of power, and this is why I agreed to appear before you today.” – Michael Cohen, former Trump confidant
WHAT ABOUT THE AFTER-EFFECT?
If Donald Trump leaves office on his own or is forced out, Democrats already expect zero cooperation from a bitter ex-president. The traditional transfer of national security information and documents from Trump appointees to the incoming team will likely never happen — and even if it did, Democrats already presume the documents might not be trustworthy.
Some fear that Trump aides will destroy paper trails related to controversial issues, or quietly push through last-minute initiatives that could constrict the next administration’s ability to tackle hot button issues such as immigration or relations with Iran. With that in mind, Democrats fear they would need to devote precious time in the early weeks of a new administration piecing together what happened under Trump on a range of areas and would be launching the new presidency at a disadvantage.
Under this Trump doomsday scenario, the Democrats’ one saving-grace would come from career government staffers (or what Trump refers to as members of the “deep state”) who are sworn to serve in a nonpartisan fashion and implement American policies no matter who is in control of The White House.
As Lawrence Douglas, author and Amherst College professor of law has warned, “We have a president of the United States who has pretty consistently and aggressively telegraphed his intention not to concede in the face of an electoral defeat, especially if that electoral defeat is of a very narrow margin.” With that thought in mind, Democrats are hoping to win by a decisive margin and are actively preparing for any number of Trump-shenanigans that could come into play should he lose in November and refuse to concede in January.
DJ’s post is dead on. Trump won’t go peacefully…and We know this. Even if defeated by a decisive margin.
Btw- after ALL the H*ll that dangerous fool has put Our country through we sure as heck BETTER defeat his evil azz by a decisive margin! A small margin just will not due.
And you’re darn skippy the Dems better be “actively preparing for any number of Trump-shenanigans” because, as John Podesta said: “They’re a ‘let’s burn the house down on the way out’ kind of crowd.”
They do NOT care about this country. Not at all.