Could the Ukraine War be the end of the iron-fist reign of Russian President Vladimir Putin? One foreign policy expert seems to think so.
Current Events
In an interview with The New York Times, Clint Watts, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said he believes Vladimir Putin has such a growing disaster on his hands that a collapse at home in Moscow is becoming almost inevitable.
Watts, who served in the US Army before being recruited by the FBI to combat terrorism, said the global sanctions that are already crippling Russia’s economy, combined with the unpopularity of the war among Russian citizens, as well as the dead soldiers soon to come might be enough to threaten Putin’s tenure in Russia.
Watts believes Putin won’t be able to disguise the war dead, which will continue to grow due to the stiff resistance the Ukraine War has unexpectedly presented — and that Putin and his generals never anticipated.
“He’s got a disaster on his hands, for a couple reasons,” Watts said. “Militarily, even if he is successful, he’s taking casualties. That will filter back home. You cannot disinformation your way out of 10,000 dead. It’s just not possible. And you’re going to have war-wounded. The mothers in Russia have always been the pushback against Putin during these conflicts. This is going to be next-level scale.”
Due to the difficulties of occupying a country, Watts suggested that Putin will be unsuccessful at installing a compliant government following the Ukraine War that can successfully control the populace. Or, in other words, the Russians will need an unsustainable 800,000 soldiers to tamp down an insurgency that likely “won’t go away.”
As if that isn’t enough, dissatisfaction among Russia’s powerful oligarchs over the collapsing economy and the crippling sanctions might end up being the final nail in the Putin coffin.
“This will not settle down at home,” Watts stated. “And for those that have had the open markets, the open economy, you know, more open economy, more open information space — when these things start trickling and shutting off, you’re going to see two things. One, those that can flee will. Who are those that flee? Those with money. And those that stay, there’s going to be fights and wars. And so my big worry is that we’re worried about Kyiv falling today. I’m worried about Moscow falling between day 30 and six months from now.
“He’s going to throw everything at the wall to try and convince Russians that things are going well, that the war was justified. And if he gets into trouble or the West really mounts a coordinated defense, he’s going to say, look, they’re doing it to us. I have to defend us. It’s defensive. It’s defensive. And will they buy that? I don’t know. I think it’s starting to break,” Watts added.
French President Emmanuel Macron is keeping a line of communication open with Putin on behalf of the West, should Putin wish to find a secret way out of the Ukraine War.
“He is keeping a diplomatic channel open for the West in case Putin might want to de-escalate and look for a way out of this crisis,” said Benjamin Haddad, a senior director for Europe at the Atlantic Council in Paris and a member of Macron’s party.
Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has also become a mediator, meeting with Putin during a surprise visit to Moscow on Saturday and speaking with him again by phone on Sunday.
The bottom line here is that the Ukraine war is not going well for Vladimir Putin and Russia. As mentioned here on Monday, Putin’s options are dwindling and have left him with only 3 options: continue the invasion and hope like hell it magically works; seek a face-saving way out and retreat with help from the West; or, push the nuclear button and blow up humanity.
Stay tuned!
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The Ukraine war could be the end of Putin.
He has all the people in Russia coward. I have my doubts about people turning on him. Only the oligarchs have that kind of power.